A CHINESE WORLD ORDER
Posted by: Massimo Merlino in geopolitic
It’s time to depict the new Chinese world order, as the chaos theory from Obama time as a tool to assure USA leadership seems to have accelerated the change process, which could have been concluded perhaps in 100 years under normal conditions. I dealt with China approach and possible evolution in various contributions, analysing the policies of their progressive control on the world both from investments and logistics point of view and from the type of cultural penetration through technology and social in the mind of new generations. Now I will try to imagine a real Chinese hegemony in the world and possible strength and weakness points for us western educated people and for them in the new leadership role. The market leadership is already clear in its dynamics and doesn’t create difficulties, being favoured from consumers behaviour in all the major countries. The GDP of China it’s reaching that of USA and the participation to International Trade grew a lot after 2001 WTO admission, notwithstanding doubts and accuses of not fair Chinese regulations and incentives. The logistic network created in Europe, Africa and South America is also developing without particular conflicts and as the roads in Roman Empire, established the infrastructure for the commercial growth and business influence in the world. Italian long experience of being the first at the court of winners, had some years ago a government signing the agreement on One Belt One Road Chinese project, which now has been rejected after USA pressure, but it was a very realistic approach along a way opened unofficially by Germany many years ago investing in China for car production.
So i don’t see any problem to the economic dominance of China on international markets, in the framework of Globalisation, for which China is coherently a champion. If USA will abandon their traditional posture and pass to protectionism policies, they must be ready to military confrontation, as Germany did in two wars for its economy protection from UK products and commercial globalism. Recently I wrote about a possible condominium government of Globalisation, which continue to grow, between China and USA, in my opinion a win-win strategy. If China top authorities will confirm political ambitions to assume an hegemony posture, I see many problems not in western world but for the new leader. New generations culture in western world is very open, through social they think we are all equal and brothers in the world, and this together with woke and cancel history approaches will favour Chinese quiet and not disturbing penetration. But the day after China has to manage a chaotic situation of countries divided by religious, economic, military conflicts, about 170 according to a Swedish Upsala research institute. The USA military budget is larger then the sum of all the others countries military expenses, and not all Americans are happy for this. Will China be capable to open military basis in all the world to become the sherif of it? The hate versus USA has grown regularly along their world leadership. The racism to Chinese and viceversa is already very strong before hegemony, how will be after? USA is a very religious country in its core and traditions, understanding easily the other communities religious values. China has a communist education and Confucian roots on philosophy more than religion, as the Tibet case demonstrated, and as Uiguri question confirms. The present efforts of China to assume a balanced position on international conflicts is a good strategy to hegemony, but it leverages on USA hate from BRICS and underdeveloped countries, poors versus rich people. Tomorrow with a Chinese political hegemony this powerful leverage will disappear. In Europe Germany is very pleased to make money with China, but when they will receive political pressure, are they able to obey? So, I think that as usual the path to leadership is appealing for anyone, but a cold and deep analysis of the dynamics of the empires, may suggest a not clear result for a nation in terms of costs and benefits.