CLASSICAL GEOPOLITIC APPROACH WINNING OVER MODERN ONE?
Posted by: Massimo Merlino in geopolitic
Classical Geopolitics means a deep root in geography and basic resources analysis of an area. Modern one, generally from American schools, means more fragmented analysis based on many different parameters beyond geography, mostly energetic, environmental, demographic, socio-economical. Like in the Economy field, American more analytical approach forgot the basic principles of the theory, the original fresh approach of this cross-disciplines culture, rooted in territorial, physical, geographical and economic constraints, operating in deterministic way on the behaviour and policies of the population inhabiting a specific area. This overcoming of the original approach, suggested from one side by a powerful military and information technology and related omnipotence sense in front of natural constraints, and from another side by universalistic culture ideologically generated by Christian religion and marxism, shows now its clear limits in the present world situation and power balancing among leader nations. The most recent trends in world power equilibrium seems to be a clear back to basis, a return to Realpolitik of Vienna Congress (1815) and Bismarck, and to policies inspired by the classical Geopolitic approach.
Emerging of a Chinese Empire, with the lifelong power to its leader, consolidation of Russian elite around a czarist model of government, renovating British spirit and self-consciousness through Brexit, structural resistance of Iran to internal modern trends, new Ottoman imperial ambitions in Turkey, reemerging of frontier culture in USA, higher ambitions of Saudi Arabia in islamic world religious and civil leadership, are all policies easily classified and forecastable through classical Geopolitic view. The universalistic vision, which looks at globalisation as a first step of a new world “community” with common culture and human value vision, on which by the way the Obama policy in USA was believing favouring so called “democracies” in Arabic world and immigration trends from underdeveloped countries to rich ones to accelerate a multiethnic society Brazilian type, seems to loose momentum in the most important areas of the planet, perhaps except EU small group of nations. This vision was extremely critic to classical Geopolitic, considered like a past culture, sometimes qualified as typical of European dictatorships of 1930-1940, and preferred modern analytical specialised studies on economics, environment, demographics, anthropological, New Age variables, all very important but too fragmented and based on an artificial acceleration of human evolution, which requires more wide time-scale for succeed.
This deep under-evaluation of geographical and resources constraints destroyed the USA international leadership, becoming too much ideologically based and believing that the human behaviour is the same in any space and area conditions. This decline of USA prestige favourited the rapid growth of new entrant powers, moving along more traditional cultural axis, very territorial based and rooted in religious and cultural very different beliefs, whereas the biggest countries create the renaissance of classical Empires. 2000 years ago we had three Empires, Chinese, Persian and Roman and today in the same geo-strategic areas we find again China, Iran and Russia, as third Rome, inherited trough Byzantine part of Roman dominion.Once again the deterministic influence of Geography triumphed on the apparently most sophisticated and intellectual approach born after second world war in USA,which had also the more classical multipolar Kissinger and civilisation driven Huntington schools. The historical compact continental platform and ethnical unity remain fundamental for China power, which continue its strategy of energetic supplying and demographic pacific/economic leadership/ expansion toward Siberia, Central Asia and Africa. Space remain vital for surviving for Russian Federation, in absence of real natural obstacles defending Moscow, a strategy started with czar Ivan IV in 1200, supported by enormous natural resources of Siberia. In Iran Komeini was saying to Gorbaciov “Now you have finished , is up to us”, meaning the return to ancient Persian borders influencing Central Asia nations. These are the real historical and natural roots of big powers of today, not so much has changed through 2000 years, and the modern Geopolitical has a long time to wait before the world deep change and universal brotherhood will be affirmed. For passionate of history it
will be very natural to remember President Wilson and its idealistic vision in Versailles 1918,under-evaluating national differences in Europe, which caused after only twenty years a new tragic world war in Europe and in Asia.