Posted by: Massimo Merlino in geopolitic
G7 was already a G6 (USA,Japan,Germany,UK,France,Italy) plus Canada starting in 1986 and grouping the winners in World War 2 with the Roberto (Rome, Berlin, Tokyo) losers, but very well developed around 40 years of peace after the war. Joining Canada, the club was controlling about 60% of world GDP. The illusion of a world government reached the peak at the beginning of eighties when Soviet Union crashed under Reagan’s star wars perspectives and Fukuyama wrote “The end of History” promoting a free international market and globalisation under USA, and G7, guidance. Clinton was celebrating around the world the American peace, and everyone started to hope in the “dividend of peace”, reducing the enormous weapon costs of the cold war period.
But in the next decade Russian restarted his ambitions under Putin government, through a power policy based not on economic strength, but on atomic weapon. In 2002 in Italy Putin signs a treaty of partnership with OTAN and G7 becomes G8 for few years, thank you to energy action of Berlusconi and Bush, under the pressure of terrorism starting 11/9/2001 in New York. This was the best result for Western powers, but globalisation exploded and in another decade the first group of seven emergent countries was overcoming the GDP of the G7. China, India, Brazil, Russia, Mexico, Indonesia, Turkey, around 2010 were overcoming the economic power of G7, whose GDP was rapidly going down to 40% of the world economy.
Due to this so rapid change in economic balance of power, G20 was created in 2002, with 19 countries plus one only European Union representative, but notwithstanding several yearly meetings, this organism never grew to a decisional one, remaining merely a consultation group like other similar builded in Asia. Today the concentration of GDP in the world is around 25% in USA, 15% in China, all the other countries going from 6% of Japan, 4% of Germany and India to 2% of Russia and Italy. So EU was rapidly declining in its economic weight and demographic potential in the last twenty years, and today the trend can only be toward a G3 with USA, China and Russia, with a peculiar position of India which could be included reaching a G4 to govern the world, for demographic weight and being an atomic power.
From the atomic power point of view, G7 has 4 countries with atomic weapon, the 7 emergent following have three countries with atomic power. Russia and China are together with USA, UK and France in the UNO Security committee, where the Roberto group are not represented permanently. Asia has now the major economic future potential compared with other continents. But the high speed of power concentration in China and USA let easily forecast a real G2 supervision committee, if not a confrontation hopefully not through a war, but mainly through hard competition in Technology and Economy.
Of course will be a lot of opportunities for consultation committee in Americas, Africa, Asia and cross-borders, like in a big multinational there is not only a board for strategic orientation but also many intermediate coordination committee. The reality of competition and the results until now obtained in so short period of time, particularly in new technologies in any field of science and industrial applications, have selected the winners and the leaders of next change to be managed.As I said in previous comments geopolitics, the only hope for peace is in the capability of learning from experience of the major powers. I hope that the deep cultural roots of Asia can help in changing too hard and authoritarian approaches of the past in favour of a sense of common destiny of world populations, whose future can be only in planet exploration overcoming the idea of the Earth as a closed system.