Taiwan:big China or little Japan?

The beautiful Governor Palace, Japanese colonial style, a bit German with its central Tower, welcome tourists in Taipei, focusing immediately our memory on 1895-1945 Japanese occupation. The name of Taipei was Taihoku, district of Japan. Notwithstanding the Chinese continue declaration of Taiwan pertaining to China, the island was Chinese only from 1875 to 1895, first war China-Japan, and after Chiang Kai Check retiring with 1,5 million Chinese from Mao revolution end of 30ties. The island was before inhabited by Indonesian people and discovered by Portuguese in 1500, after Tordesillas treaty, named Formosa for its beauty. 24 million inhabitants on a surface a bit more large then Piedmont and Liguria, industrial leader in the most advanced technology, excellent health and educational systems, 32000 $ of GDP per capita, like Italy, Taiwan is an example of social organisation, efficiency and human resources quality in the world. In the last ten years the indigenous people and the heritage of Japan have been reevaluated from the Government, very determined to keep on with independence from China. And military preparation is also on the top: after first USA policy change of Nixon 1973, in favour of one only China, and following loss of UNO seat, Taiwan multiplied the efforts of autonomous defence. The island is a porcupine of missiles, particularly anti-ships and anti-missiles, and Chinese attack from the sea would be very difficult with 180 km of distance from continent. Not even Quemoy, 2 km from continent. was occupied in the past by Chinese forces after long artillery bombing of the small island.

As from the maps, the island is very rocky and the possible beaches of dis-embarkment are on the south, opposite side of possible invasion direction. 3 million people can be mobilised to fight against enemies and are constantly trained for. only possibility for China is to bomb and destroy everything from the sky, but with horrible results in reputation for a country always talking of peace and world market free and opened.

China has a lot of critical areas of potential conflicts with other local powers and USA.

With Vietnam for Paracelso and Spratly islands, with Philippines and in general the Chinese strategy is to bypass Singapore and its Malaysia narrow passages, overcoming India trough OBOR in Pakistan to Gwadar harbour and Suez. So Taiwan it’s not the only critical area to China expansion out of Chinese South sea, where China feels to be contained by USA fleet and their allies, mainly South Korea and Japan.
Particularly Spratly islands have been hyper fortified with artificial platforms and airports from China against any international agreement. and in conflict with all the other nations in the area. Judging from this aggressive policy of the last ten years and connected military investments in ships and missiles, the future seems to be very dangerous also for Taiwan. Due to the experience of present Russia-Ucraina war, any provocation in the area should be carefully avoided and all the efforts should be done to keep the enormous commercial exchange with West in a pacific contest, leveraging on Chinese historical tradition of non interference in political problems of other countries.